NFL Week 4 Preview
Best Bets
0.75 Pts Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Miami Dolphins by 11-20 Points (16/5 Paddy Power)
2 Pts Carolina Panthers (-3 Handicap) to beat the Atlanta Falcons (10/11 Sky Bet)
0.75 Pts Carolina Panthers to beat the Atlanta Falcons by 11-20 Points (5/1 Paddy Power)
1.5 Pts Denver Broncos (-3 Handicap) to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20/21 Betfred)
We move into week 4 of the NFL season and the major talking point of the league is how the young cohort of quarterbacks are excelling early. Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott & Jimmy Garoppolo have all impressed. We are transitioning into an era where offences will surely dominate the NFL. Quarterbacks and receivers are being protected by the referees which makes offensive production easier. Furthermore the league is being dominated by offensively minded coaches, which should mean exciting times ahead for the NFL.
Early on in the season and the standings look to be bit of a jumbled mess. Philadelphia have shocked many and behind the outstanding play of Wentz they are off to a perfect start. On the other side of things the two sides that made the NFC conference final last year are off to 1-2 starts. Carolina and Arizona aren’t in crisis, but they need to respond quickly in order to not fall badly behind in the playoff chase.
We hope we can bring you a bit of value for week 4, with the following tips.
0.75 Pts Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Miami Dolphins by 11-20 Points (16/5 Paddy Power)
Some will look at this and wonder why we are backing a team to win heavily after they have made a faltering start. Note that the Bengals losses have come at the hands of the Steelers & the Broncos who are both legitimate title contenders. The Bengals defence didn’t perform against Denver and they gave up a massive amount of yards which was problematic. On the plus side Thursday will mark the return of Vontaze Burfict who has been suspended for the first three games of the season. The linebacker will improve the Bengals defensive unit immediately.
The Bengals have hit a point now where they have to respond, and Miami gives them the perfect opportunity to do just that. Miami have been poor and the Bengals have a massive point to prove on Thursday night. If they can’t beat Miami by a comfortable margin things will not be looking good for the Bengals. A lot has been said about the Bengals and their inadequacies when it comes to primetime matches. The Bengals have stumbled on the national stage in recent years, but an opportunity to play a faltering Miami gives them a great chance to shed some demons.
As we said Miami are poor and they just about managed to an overtime victory against the Browns, who could be the worst team in the league. The Dolphins defence aren’t stopping much and this should provide Andy Dalton an opportunity to air it out with plenty of success. Look for A.J. Green to be a huge threat as usual and the Bengals can always fall back on their solid run game under pressure.
When looking at this one purely from a talent perspective this is a mismatch. The Bengals are deep across the field whereas Miami look a bit of a makeshift unit. We think a victory margin of 11-20 points looks like value on this one.
2 Pts Carolina Panthers (-3 Handicap) to beat the Atlanta Falcons (10/11 Sky Bet)
0.75 Pts Carolina Panthers to beat the Atlanta Falcons by 11-20 Points (5/1 Paddy Power)
Don’t count out Cam and the Panthers just yet! A little perspective is needed when we consider the Panthers went 15-1 last year and the losses this year have come against elite defences in Denver and Minnesota. This week we think they will bounce back strong against an Atlanta team who have moved out to a 2-1 record. The Falcons are yet to play one of the real contenders this year and it will be interesting to see if their defence can cope with the Carolina offensive attack.
We think that Carolina will play a little angry this week and might just run out comprehensive winners. The Panthers have all the tools to put their NFC South rivals firmly in their place on Sunday and playing with a little fear after a shaky start shouldn’t hurt them. Expect Cam to air it out successfully and run up a big score. On the other side of the game if the Carolina defence turns up they should be able to slow down Matt Ryan who has gotten off to a hot start.
Play safe by taking Carolina on the standard point margin market and take a punt on Carolina to run out comfortable 11-20 point winners.
1.5 Pts Denver Broncos (-3 Handicap) to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20/21 Betfred)
I’ll admit it, we’ve been quick to write off the Broncos in the last year and have been punished for being non-believers. Well it’s time to start believing in this team for us, and we don’t think -3 on the handicap is showing the defending champions enough respect. Tampa Bay haven’t exactly set the world alight this season, and the Broncos are actually getting more production out of their new quarterback than they were from Peyton last year.
The Broncos are off to an undefeated start and their win against the Bengals last week was mightily impressive. The defence was up to its usual tricks but Trevor Siemian showed that he could pass for serious yards! He went for a 300 plus yard game with four touchdown passes in a commanding performance. This is beyond what the Broncos need from their quarterback to win it all again. If he can be half of this level they will win nearly all of their games.
In their last two games the Bucs have been completely blown out by Arizona and then followed this up with a disappointing loss against the Rams. Their young quarterback Jameis Winston looked great in his last outing but going up against one of the best defensive units ever will be a lot to handle.
There is no reason to believe that the wheels will fall off for Denver this week. They are the reigning champions and playing fantastic. We are happy to take them on the handicap against an out of form Bucs.