US Open Preview
Best Bets
2.5 Pts EW (1-6) Jordan Spieth (10/1 Ladbrokes)
1 Pt EW (1-6) Matthew Fitzpatrick (70/1 Stan James)
1 Pt EW (1-6) Martin Kaymer (80/1 Stan James)
0.5 Pts EW (1-6) Andy Sullivan (300/1 Stan James)
We are back this week with a preview of the US Open which gets underway on Thursday morning. The second major of the year usually provides us with a lot of entertainment as the best players in the world struggle on a tough layout. This year will be no different at Oakmont which some say is the hardest course in the world. The par 70 layout measures out at just over 7,200 yards and is a brutal test for any golfer. This course last hosted the US Open in 2007 and Angel Cabrera won with a score of +5 which demonstrates just what a test awaits the players this year.
The course itself has trouble around every corner. There isn’t any hole that allows players to take a breath and if your game isn’t fully firing you will be found out by this course. There are only two par fives on this course and only one of these holes is reachable in two for the longer hitters. Where the course really protects itself is on the greens and with its rough. The rough is long and penalising and the greens are fast and undulating.
The early weather forecast for this week doesn’t really indicate any advantage for an early or late start come Sunday and it should be a fair test regardless of draw. Rain is forecast on Thursday and Friday and there might be a few thunderstorms around that could cause some disruption. Expect to see a fairly easy set up on Thursday which will allow the USGA to see how difficult their course is playing. With regards to the US Open the key usually is hitting plenty of greens and putting well and we wouldn’t expect this week to be much different. So we know a pure ball striker with a solid putting stroke is someone we are looking for this week, but although these are the key factors, power will play a big part also. It is going to be difficult to get out of the deep rough successfully without being able to muscle up considerably!
We’ve stressed that putting is of the utmost importance this week, so on that basis we would be quick to rule out Rory McIlroy at the top of the market who hasn’t been able to rely on his putting stroke this year. Jordan Spieth clearly is appealing given how well he putts when he is on his game. Our feeling is that this course is geared up to be the ultimate test of golf and a big name will prevail come Sunday evening. We also feel that current form is a vitally important predictor for this week and Oakmont isn’t the place to try and find your game.
Best Bets:
2.5 Pts EW (1-6) Jordan Spieth (10/1 Ladbrokes)
Spieth goes into this week as defending champion and will be looking for a better major title defence after his fourth round collapse at The Masters. We feel the collapse at Augusta should serve Spieth well, as it did Rory McIlroy a few years ago. Spieth has a win just two starts ago which should give him a lot of confidence going into this week. Although Spieth’s long game hasn’t been on form recently the biggest competitions often bring out the very best in him and expect him to come into this week more prepared than anyone else. His putting and scrambling are going to be key this week and he really is a master in the ‘tough course’ discipline. The grind of this week fits ideally for someone who can continue to knock in par saves all week and we are happy to make a fairly large play on him. Another factor that drew our attention is that he goes out with Bryson Dechambeau as he did for the first two days at the Masters. He clearly enjoyed this grouping at and got off to a blistering start and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him do the same thing again at the US Open.
1 Pt EW (1-6) Matthew Fitzpatrick (70/1 Stan James)
Our second tip this week goes to superstar in the making Matt Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick must be one of the most confident players in the field going in to this week after his win at the Nordea Masters two weeks ago. Fantastic putting and unbelievable ball striking earned the young Englishman his second win on the European Tour and these aspects of his game should serve him well this week. We were surprised to see him go off at such a big price this week and we can only think that this is because he hasn’t won on US soil as a professional. He did manage to finish 7th at The Masters earlier this year however showing he is ready for the big occasion. He has also won the coveted US Amateur Championship, which he did back in 2013, showing he is able to bring his best stuff across the pond.
1 Pt EW (1-6) Martin Kaymer (80/1 Stan James)
Simply put this just looks like a huge price for the 2014 US Open Champion. Kaymer has all the tools to go well this week if he is on form and his last two starts indicate that he could be trending back towards his best golf. Back to back top 10’s on the European Tour must give Kaymer plenty of confidence heading into a tournament he loves. He cruised to victory in 2014 and one of his biggest strengths that he will be able to draw upon this week is his mental toughness. Kaymer has the ability to simply grind away and not let bad breaks, or poor shots get the best of him. This will be essential at Oakmont where players are inevitably going to be faced with some horror shots. He goes out this week early with two good friends in Lee Westwood and Luke Donald which should create a relaxed atmosphere for the German where he can thrive!
0.5 Pts EW (1-6) Andy Sullivan (300/1 Stan James)
Our last pick this week goes to the massively talented Andy Sullivan. Sullivan has been on a poor run of form as of late, but like Kaymer his mental toughness has served him well and he has remained upbeat despite his downturn in form. He managed a top 25 in his last start which represented a vast improvement for Sullivan and based on his odds he has been grossly underestimated by the bookies. He stands as the world number 40 currently, and his ball striking and putting are massive strengths which should serve him well for this week. If any major is going to suit Sullivan we feel it will be this one, and we might not get another chance to back him at such a big price. Adding to this, he is desperate to make the Ryder Cup team this year and what better way to do it than to have a big week at the second major of the year!