Rickie to Shine at Quail Hollow
Best Bets
1 Pt EW (1-6) Rickie Fowler (16/1 Sky Bet)
0.5 Pts EW (1-6) Webb Simpson (80/1 Betfred)
0.5 Pts EW (1-6) Jason Kokrak (80/1 Sky Bet)
After a few weeks with what some might call low quality fields the return of the Wells Fargo this week sees a strong group of players teeing it up, headlined by Rory McIlroy who comes into this one as defending champion. The Wells Fargo Championship is held at Quail Hollow Club which measures out at nearly 7,600 yards. It’s a long Par 72 track which has one of the hardest finishes in golf. The course is tree lined in places but some of these trees have been cut away in recent years making it easier for those who miss the fairways.
As we said the field is strong for this week with Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson all playing. All in all 14 of the world’s top 25 will tee it up this week so it should be a cracking competition. In terms of who we like at the top of the market it’s hard to look away from McIlroy. He holds the course record for both 18 and 72 holes and is a two time champion. He goes off at a small price but there is still some value there for someone who regularly plays well on certain courses. Last year things were pretty comfortable for McIlroy. He shot a 61 on the Saturday, and cruised round on the Sunday for a heavy victory. Although he is appealing at 5/1 best price, his putting hasn’t been up to scratch this year and for that reason we won’t be jumping on the McIlroy bandwagon. The other we like at the top of the market is Rickie Fowler who we think represents way more value than McIlroy.
Scrambling and Driving Distance are two stats that have proved to be important at the Wells Fargo in previous years. The course is long, but forgiving off the tee, so giving it a rip with driver all day can often prove the best strategy. The event usually churns out a high quality winner and although there are some maiden victories here, these are infrequent. We like three players this week for a number of reasons so let’s get on to our selections!
1 Pt EW (1-6) Rickie Fowler (16/1 Sky Bet)
Our first pick this week is Rickie Fowler who is a past champion. Since winning in 2012 he hasn’t had his best stuff at this event, but he has to have good feelings at this event given it was his first PGA Tour title. He has added some yards with his driving over the last year and now sits inside the top forty on the tour in driving distance which should help for this week. He also sits inside the top 20 on tour for scrambling which is a key stat for this week. After a disappointing Masters he will be keen to bounce back strong and showed some good signs last week on his way to a top 20 finish. Look for him to build on that this week with a strong finish and perhaps even another title.
0.5 Pts EW (1-6) Webb Simpson (80/1 Betfred)
Webb Simpson perhaps doesn’t fit the bill statistically this week, but there are a lot of reasons why we like him to go well. Even though he isn’t the longest off the tee, he has added some yards to his driver this year and is averaging 290 + off the tee. He is an above average scrambler which will undoubtedly help him this
week given the length of the course. His recent form has been hit and miss, but after a solid finish at the Masters he appears to be trending back towards better golf. The big selling point for Simpson this week is that he resides at Quail Hollow and loves the course. He has held the 54 hole lead here twice and has a few good finishes. He came second last year and will be looking to go one better this year. Given he is at such a large price we are happy to make a small play on him this week.
0.5 Pts EW (1-6) Jason Kokrak (80/1 Sky Bet)
Our final pick this week is Jason Kokrak who clearly has the distance off the tee that is beneficial at Quail Hollow. He is one of the very longest hitters on tour and given accuracy isn’t at a premium this week he will be able to unleash driver on most holes. What is lesser known is that Kokrak is also an excellent scrambler and will need these skills this week in order to save some pars. He is a Charlotte resident so will classify this one as a home event, and having played this event for the last four years he has now familiarised himself with the course.
His form here is hit and miss, but that very much replicates his general form. If he is swinging well this week he will likely go close and we are happy to take a chance at 80/1.