Zurich Classic of New Orleans Preview
Best Bets
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Marc Leishman (50/1 Ladbrokes)
0.75 Pts EW (1-6) Smylie Kaufman (40/1 Stan James)
Last week proved to be a profitable week for us at the Valero Texas Open as Kevin Chappell secured a place for us. For a moment, as he moved into the back nine it looked like might have a run for the title but ultimately after some late missed opportunities he finished in a tie for fourth. Charley Hoffman finally strung a last round together and took the win. It wasn’t a massive surprise considering his previous form in the Texas Open, but considering he opened at 30/1 he was never going to be on our shortlist.
This week we move on to the Zurich Classic of New Orleans which sees a few of the bigger names return to the tour. The course is TPC Louisiana which has been the venue for this one since 2007. The course has been lengthened this year and now measures out at over 7,400 yards in a standard par 72 layout. It’s a Pete Dye design that is located on the wetlands near New Orleans. Unlike the past couple of weeks this is one of the easier courses on tour so look for players who like birdie fests to go well. We predicted last week that the winning score will just move into double digits under, but don’t be surprised this week to see someone move past the -20 barrier. The only thing that might prevent this is the wind forecast and the extra length this year.
This week sees the world number 1 Jason Day return to action. He has gone well here before and was leading going into the final round last year. He looks a very short price however, and we can’t be tempted at shorter than 6/1. Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler also tee it up after a bit of a break since the Masters. Last year Rose took the title with a closing 66, he managed to hole a lot of mid-range putts throughout the week which helped his cause. Charley Hoffman will play again this week and will look to continue his great form of late.
It looks like wind will be a factor this week with 15 mph winds forecast for Thursday and Friday. What has proved to be essential here before is a good week in the greens in regulation and strokes gained putting statistics. We will consider these two criteria as our two main statistical selection factors. Given that the wind is set to get up we will consider wind performance and current and previous form as usual. With all that in mind let’s get on to our best bets for the week.
Best Bets
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Marc Leishman (50/1 Ladbrokes)
Our headline tip this week goes to the Australian Marc Leishman. He really impressed us at the RBC Heritage two weeks back and finished in a tie for 30th on a course that should not have suited. This week he goes out on a venue where he should feature more heavily. He has proved his wind play prowess previously and recently lost out in an Open playoff following a blustery week. In terms of our key statistics his game looks nicely matched for this course. He is inside the top 30 for birdie average on tour this year which bodes well for a birdie fest. His putting is inside the top 50 on tour and although he ranks further down the GIR stats this can be attributed to some difficulties with new clubs earlier in the year. Although he might not have had his absolute best in previous weeks this course looks like the ideal place for him to kick-start his season. He still sits comfortably inside the world’s top 50 and once we move past the big names at the top of the market he seems as likely as any. Leishman had a look at this course last year and posted a top 30 finish and we think he can build on that this year with a potential win!
0.75 Pts EW (1-6) Smylie Kaufman (40/1 Stan James)
Our second tip this week goes to Smylie Kaufman who is already a winner on the PGA Tour in his rookie season. Kaufman had a week off last week and went on holiday with Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler. Hanging around with this kind of company is sure to inspire you to play consistently well and we don’t think he is ready to settle now he has his first win. Our play on Kaufman this week is largely based on a hunch that this course should set up ideally for him. Kaufman sits inside the top 15 on tour for birdie average. He ranks highly in the GIR statistics and is a really streaky putter. If he can get the flat stick going this week we don’t think he will be far away and an each way play on him looks a solid bet.