Valero Texas Open Preview
Best Bets
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Kevin Chappell (50/1 Coral)
0.5 Pts EW (1-5) Aaron Baddeley (100/1 General)
After some east coast action we move to San Antonio this week for the Valero Texas Open. The Heritage was a promising week for us after David Lingmerth who tipped a 150/1 shot opened with a 67. He wasn’t able to maintain his scoring through the week however and fell away on Saturday and Sunday. We move onto this week where we have a couple of strong fancies to go well.
TPC San Antonio (Oaks) hosts the event this week and measures out at just over 7,400 yards. It’s a standard par 72 layout with a couple of par 5’s on each side. The course was designed by Greg Norman, but at its heart it’s a Pete Dye concoction who was the builder and has left his mark on the venue. Unlike some PGA Tour events errant tee shots are punished here massively. The narrow fairways are bordered by punishing bunkers and thick vegetation. Players have been coming to this course since 2010, so when considering the past course form it isn’t massively prudent to go back beyond five years ago. In terms of a winning score this week, don’t expect players to go crazy, especially if the wind gets up. This is definitely one of the harder tracks on tour, and a score of double digits under par will have a great chance of winning.
At the top of the market this week are a couple of Texans. Jimmy Walker returns as past champion after comfortably winning the event last year from a trailing Jordan Spieth. Walker lives local to the course which must be a huge advantage but his form has been questionable of late and we are reluctant to back him at such a low price. Patrick Reed also plays, and he will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing Masters. Another interesting entrant this week is Bryson DeChambeau who makes his second start as a pro. He clearly looks comfortable amongst the best in the game and already has a top five finish to his name, which he achieved in his professional debut.
In terms of key stats this week we feel that off the tee accuracy is crucial to a good week here. It’s important to miss the punishing bunkers and some errant drives will be punished by a lost ball this week. Scrambling is also crucial for this week. With the course being so difficult it’s going to be important to chip and putt well when you inevitably miss a few greens. Finally wind almost always is a factor out here so wind performance stats will also come into our thinking. With that in mind here are our selections for this week.
Our Tips:
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Kevin Chappell (50/1 Coral)
Our headline pick this week goes to Kevin Chappell. He finished inside the top ten last week and managed a second place finish at the Arnold Palmer invitational a few weeks back so is clearly playing nicely. He finished second in this event back in 2011 and 15th in 2013 so when he is getting things right he has the potential to go
well here. He has solid scrambling stats and looks to be trending in the right direction for this week. We think a small each way play at generous odds is a solid play this week.
0.5 Pts EW (1-5) Aaron Baddeley (100/1 General)
Our second pick this week goes to the Australian Aaron Baddeley. Like Chappell Baddeley has been playing well of late and has two top ten finishes in his last three starts. Importantly Baddeley is an unbelievable scrambler and if he can keep it out of trouble off the tee (big if) he could have a great week. Last year Baddeley finished in 20th in this event and has a top five and top 20 on this course in other years. He goes off this week at a big price, but unlike those around him in the market he has won before, so if he is in contention come Sunday he has a lot of experience to draw on. We like a small each way play on the Australian this week.