MLB Season Preview
Our Tips:
0.5 Pts on Marcus Stroman [Toronto Blue Jays] to win the AL Cy Young award (66/1 Paddy Power)
2 Pts on Cleveland Indians to win the AL Central (10/3 Will Hill)
2 Pts on St Louis Cardinals to win the NL Central (13/4 Bet 365)
0.5 Pts on Trevor Rosenthal [St Louis Cardinals] to have the most saves (20/1 Will Hill)
Baseball fans rejoice! The regular season start is just a few days away.
There have been some big stories in the winter meetings, as a number of teams took away valuable pieces to their World Series seeking puzzle and a few divisions within each League look like going to the wire with two, three or even more teams looking like dangerous competitors. We’ll give a quick breakdown of the situation, then focus on our picks for the season.
American League
The AL West sees the Houston Astros favoured having impressed last year as somewhat of a shock to many. There is plenty to suggest that the Astros have run similar to the story of the Cubs from last year and therefore could find a similar path to the playoffs again this time round, maybe pushing further than the ALDS defeat they suffered. Despite this and the expected emergence of Carlos Correa to challenge for AL MVP honours, there is plenty of competition within the division as the Robinson Cano led Mariners, Mike Trout led LA Angels and Prince Fielder led Texas Rangers will look to contest the division title.
The AL East should be more competitive than it has been in a few years as the Boston Red Sox look to have somewhat of a resurgence and challenge the Toronto Blue Jays supremacy of 2015. The acquisition of David Price from under the beak of the Blue Jays is seen as a significant shift in power for that division, as Boston have given themselves a much needed Ace for their rotation to go with their strong bats. David Ortiz wants another World Series ring in his final year while hoping to mentor the clubhouse, helping the likes of Mookie Betts realise his potential and push on for an MVP calibre year. However, the Baltimore Orioles have the Home Run leader of 2015 in Chris Davis along with a good amount of other talent, the Yankees have been improving and hope to go further than their Wildcard appearance of last year and the Tampa Bay Rays have potentially a hugely underrated squad which consists of at least 3 high quality pitchers that can provide a difficult rotation for any team to break down during a season series.
In the AL Central, defending champs and back-to-back World Series appearances for the Kansas City Royals is probably what gives them the edge in the eyes of many, but we don’t feel that this is as much of a one-horse race as some are suggesting. The Royals don’t appear to have improved as much as many other teams and having lost a player like Ben Zobrist to the Chicago Cubs they have lost quite a valuable utility piece which played a big part in their World Series win, along with Johnny Cueto moving from their rotation on to the San Francisco Giants. The Detroit Tigers still possess some of the biggest bats in the game as Miguel Cabrera had the best batting average in the AL for 2015 and will look to get back his pop of previous seasons and get somewhere near teammate JD Martinez’s number, which could end as a league leading total. Chicago will hope that their White Sox can do somewhat of a Cubs style run for the city, helped by one of the league’s best pitchers in Chris Sale, a potential Cy Young candidate and the acquisition of Todd Frazier to help boost their line-up power, and it would be foolish to forget about the consistently dangerous Cleveland Indians in that division.
National League
The NL West should be a hotly contested division this season, as the LA Dodgers look to maintain their division winning standards, but have lost a huge piece with the shock move of Zack Greinke to the Arizona Diamondbacks. It has been a few years since the D-Backs have challenged and to do so this year they will have to overcome the Dodgers and the seemingly magical even-year run of the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have won the past 3 World Series in even years and look once more to be a huge threat to the rest of the teams that have title ambitions. There is always the potential for the Padres and Rockies to have an impact in this division, but they are not expected to compete for the playoffs.
In the NL East, the New York Mets are favourites as the belief is that their amazing pitching rotation will only improve with experience and better health being further removed from injuries and surgeries. Therefore the logic suggests that if they made the World Series last year, they can do the same this time around. While that is sensible, the Washington Nationals will have a point to prove after surrendering their division to the Mets last year. The Nats have plenty of talent supporting MVP candidate Bryce Harper and Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer and it could be enough to disrupt the Mets’ push at a return to the World Series. Throw into that mix the potential dark horse of Giancarlo Stanton firing for the Miami Marlins and the outcome of this division could even be a complete upset.
The NL Central is for once not dominated by the St Louis Cardinals. The Pittsburgh Pirates have pushed them close the past few years, but the amazing young Chicago Cubs team is what caught the eye last year as they pushed on past the Pirates and Cards in going all the way to the ALCS. Their young bats struggled against the Mets young power arm pitchers, but they at least got into that position for the experience if nothing else. Without meaning offence to their ball clubs, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds are seen as quite irrelevant in this division, as the other 3 clubs will pitch, hit and maybe even literally scrap and fight to gain the upper hand in this division.
Our Bets:
0.5 Pts on Marcus Stroman [Toronto Blue Jays] to win the AL Cy Young award (66/1 Paddy Power)
While Chris Sale is a prime contender for the Cy Young award and there is a lot of focus on David Price’s move to the Red Sox, the Blue Jays are looking to get a full season from Marcus Stroman as their Ace. Given how he ended the last year [including playoffs], if his injury issues stay in his past then there is no reason why his 4-0 record with 1.67 ERA can’t translate into somewhere near a 20 win season, especially given the support of the huge bats in Toronto’s arsenal. At 66/1 this price is out of sync with other bookmakers and seems too good to not take a small run at.
2 Pts on Cleveland Indians to win the AL Central (10/3 Will Hill)
The Cleveland Indians have been in and around the conversation the past few years and have arguably one of the strongest rotations within the AL as Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar will look to strongly support a bounce back season for 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. As well as that rotation, each will be more than happy to hand over late in games to a more than capable bullpen anchored by Cody Allen who tied for 6th most saves in the AL in 2015. The Indians could well upset the Apple cart so to speak and sneak the AL Central title away from the Royals as they look for Francisco Lindor to become the superstar that they expect.
2 Pts on St Louis Cardinals to win the NL Central (13/4 Bet 365)
0.5 Pts on Trevor Rosenthal [St Louis Cardinals] to have the most saves (20/1 Will Hill)
While the Cards appeared ageing they still looked on the brink of winning the marathon last year, only to be outdone on the final sprint from the youthful Cubs. There is a constant buzz around the Cubs and their improvements, making some important additions to their squad of young stars. However, there is also the possibility that their youngsters could suffer the second-year slump that plagues many MLB stars. While they can draw on the experience of last year, there is not much more experience in the major leagues than what lies at the core of the Cards squad, with a once-more healthy Wainwright leading the pitching staff, aided by Yadier Molina who seems to be recovering well from his thumb issues of last year. Matt Holliday provides that experience away from the pitcher’s mound and a move to first base could prove important for the Cardinals to prevent injuries and Matt Adams may be more effective if not played every day.
The Cards have spent a number of years managing the expectations of being the favourites very well, but the “underdog” label might not change anything other than just provide a little relief that the focus is on the Cubs. The Cards can hardly ever be counted out as they refuse to give up, grinding out wins and finding what they need to plug holes. Their farm system is second to none and just produces what they need at the times that they need it, while their whole squad shares the same work ethic and spirit. This also plays into the idea of the second bet on the NL side of things, as Trevor Rosenthal should get plenty of save opportunities again due to this style. The market for the most saves offers decent odds and obviously being such a tough one to call helps this, but odds of 20/1 on the guy that has combined over the past 2 seasons for more saves than anyone else seems worth a go.