Moore to Continue Impressive Run
Best Bets
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Ryan Moore (35/1 BoyleSports)
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Paul Casey (50/1 General)
0.5 Pts EW (1-5) Zach Johnson (66/1 Bet 365)
This week sees the return of the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill is again the host course which is one of the most familiar venues on tour. Bay Hill measures out at over 7,400 yards and is a par 72 design. In 2015 some course changes were made which definitely made Bay Hill easier for the players. The course is definitely now less demanding off the tee with larger landing areas and less punishment for an errant tee shot.
Matt Every has won this competition the last two years, which causes a lot of confusion to the statistical trends for this one. Safe to say both victories came somewhat as a surprise to punters. The field looks strong for the week, with Rory McIlroy headlining the betting market, which is fair given he has some form on this course and went close in his last start. Following closely behind, Adam Scott will look to make it three wins in three starts and is undoubtedly the ‘hottest’ player on tour right now. Although we considered both of these players this week we think they go off slightly too short and are happy to avoid them.
Wind looks like it could be a massive factor this week with constant 15mph wind forecasts for the competition. As usual we have factored this into our picks for the week. Taking the Matt Every wins away, recent form seems to be the biggest indicator of who will go well at Bay Hill. A top 10 in one of the ‘Florida Swing’ events that precede this one seems to suggest a candidate who might go well this week. That is something we have considered in making our selections and we managed to reduce our shortlist to two players who we are tipping this week.
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Ryan Moore (35/1 BoyleSports)
Ryan Moore headlines for us this week and we really like him for a number of reasons. He has previous solid form at Bay Hill and in the last five years has a couple of top 25’s round here to his name. What’s more appealing however is his current form. He finished 3rd last week at the Valspar where he didn’t really put a foot wrong for most of the week. He looked comfortable enough in contention, but perhaps just left himself with a little too much to do on the last day. In his last five starts he has four top fifteen finishes demonstrating just how consistent his form has been of late. He has just jumped up in to the world’s top 50 and this could be a great week for him to try and cement that position in the rankings.
0.75 Pts EW (1-5) Paul Casey (50/1 General)
We have already backed Paul Casey this year on tour and he frustrated us with some questionable course management skills. What was clear however is that Casey is really striking the ball well at the moment. Casey doesn’t have the best record on this course, but he hasn’t played the event a whole lot of times. He goes off into this event after a 6th place finish in the last WGC event two weeks ago so clearly there is a lot to like about his game at the moment. He ranks highly in events where the wind blows strong and has the ball striking ability to control his trajectory in blustery conditions. With his current form and the big price on offer we think an each way play on him this week is worthwhile.
0.5 Pts EW (1-5) Zach Johnson (66/1 Bet 365)
Our last pick this week goes to a somewhat out of form Zach Johnson. It’s safe to say this season hasn’t got off to the start that Johnson would have liked, but he now starts his push towards The Masters as he looks to win his second green jacket. After the course changes last year Johnson managed a top 10 finish at Bay Hill so he has some affinity for the course. He is a great wind player which he demonstrated last year on his way to picking up the Open title. Like Casey he just looks to be a massive price for such an accomplished golfer and we are happy to make an each way play on him this week.