Honda Classic Preview
Best Bets
1 Pt E/W (1-6) Patrick Reed (22/1 Stan James)
0.75 Pts E/W (1-6) Paul Casey (40/1 Sky Bet)
0.25 Pts E/W (1-7) Stuart Appleby (500/1 Paddy Power)
We start the Florida swing this week on the PGA Tour with the Honda Classic. This is another high quality field as players gear up for some huge competitions comings soon. PGA National Champion Course will again host this event, and this is one of the toughest tracks that the pros will play this season. The course is a par 70 measuring out at 7,158 yards with plenty of trouble lurking on most holes.
There have been a range of winners on this course with no-brainers like Rory McIlroy coming through in 2012. On the other hand the surprise is always on at this course and Padraig Harrington proved this last year coming home to win for the first time in a while. In terms of statistical trends this isn’t a big hitters golf course despite the McIlroy success at this venue. In general greens in regulation might prove to be the most telling statistic and pure ball striking is definitely a must round this course. It looks like wind will be a factor this week so an ability to execute high quality iron shots in the wind will be essential.
As we said there is a strong field this week and headlining the market is Rory McIlroy who went well last week at the Northern Trust Open. He has a win and a second place at the Honda so look for him to go well this week and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pick up an early victory in this one. Behind McIlroy in the market there are a host of big names. Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson and Branden Grace all play this week demonstrating the strength in depth that will be on display.
As usual we have considered past course form which churns out some usual suspects. We also have considered current form as the PGA Tour season really is in full flow now. Finally looking at some of the key statistical criteria we have been able to narrow down our shortlist further to the following picks.
1 Pt E/W (1-6) Patrick Reed (22/1 Stan James)
Looking at the top of the market the stand out candidate for us is Patrick Reed. He showed in Hawaii earlier in the season that he has all the tools to cope in breezy conditions finishing second. He has performed well on this course previously with two top 25 finishes. He also looks as consistent as ever this season and just recently finished 6th at Pebble Beach. Reed ranks inside the top 20 on tour for greens in regulation demonstrating his high quality ball striking. To us he looks a solid pick at a very fair price this week and he headlines our selections.
0.75 Pts E/W (1-6) Paul Casey (40/1 Sky Bet)
Our second pick this week goes to Paul Casey who like Reed has shown form on this course previously. In the last two years at this event Casey has picked up finishes of 3rd and 12th respectively. He ranks highly in greens in regulation on tour, sitting inside the top five in this criteria. His ball striking should serve him well this week as players will be battling the elements as well as the course. In his first showing for a little while last week he picked up a top 40 finish and will be looking to go better this week in Florida.
0.25 Pts E/W (1-7) Stuart Appleby (500/1 Paddy Power)
Our final pick this week is a bit of a long shot! We suggest a small play on Stuart Appleby at a massive price. Appleby won this event back in 1997 albeit on a different course, so must have good feelings about the event in general. In the last five years this is one of the tracks where he has demonstrated some rare form with three top 25 finishes. He finished 26th last week, closing with an impressive 67 and is worth a shot at 500/1.