Pebble Fits For Lowry
Best Bets
0.75 Points EW (1-6) Shane Lowry (40/1 Sky Bet)
0.75 Points EW (1-7) J B Holmes (33/1 Paddy Power)
This week we return our attention to the PGA Tour which sees players compete in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. As the name suggests the host course is Pebble Beach which is one of the top courses in the US and has been used as a major venue previously. The tournament is played over three courses, with two rounds being played at Pebble Beach and a single round at Spyglass Hill & Monterey Peninsula Shore Course respectively. The courses this year measure out as follows:
Pebble Beach Par 72, 6828 yards
Spyglass Hill par 72, 6960 yards
Shore Course, par 72, 6873 yards
The field this week is strong with Jordan Spieth and Jason Day both featuring. The defending champion Brandt Snedeker also plays coming off his success at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. All in all 12 of the top 25 players in the world feature in what is probably the strongest field so far in the 2016 season.
We’ve had a few guys in mind for this one for a while now. Given a couple of golfer’s performances last week our selection process was made easier and we’ve come up with two picks. The weather forecast suggests wind will feature a bit on the weekend but conditions look relatively calm for the four days. The main statistical trend that is useful for this competition is found in the GIR and Putting stats. Generally speaking the winner ranks highly in both of these categories. Looking at these statistics long-term hasn’t always proven wise however, and recent trends are often a strong indicator of who will go well this week.
At the top of the betting market we are happy to swerve Spieth this week. His recent schedule has been hectic to say the least and even after a week off he will surely be feeling the effects of jetlag. Jason Day hasn’t looked his usual self in 2016 so far so we will avoid him at a short price. Our two picks go to a couple of form golfers who have played well in this event before.
0.75 Points EW (1-6) Shane Lowry (40/1 Sky Bet)
Our first pick this week is Irishman Shane Lowry. Lowry is ideally suited to Pebble Beach and has all the tools to go well this week. He’s coming off a 6th place finish in Phoenix where he closed with
five birdies in his last 7 holes. Importantly he ranks very highly in strokes gained putting on the tour this year and going off his round four performance, he looks like he has sorted some of his early season ball striking issues. In his only start in this event he managed to secure a top 25 finish and we think he is able to go much better this week. Lowry is also trending positively recently. His last three starts show form of 25-13-6 and this week he might continue this upward surge with a victory.
0.75 Points EW (1-7) J B Holmes (33/1 Paddy Power)
Our second pick this week goes to the huge hitting J B Holmes. In terms of course form Holmes has three top fifteens on this course in the last six years, including a second place finish. Like Lowry, Holmes placed in a tie for 6th in Phoenix and has been demonstrating consistent strong form in 2016’s events so far. In his last six starts he hasn’t finished outside the top 25, and he is really starting to establish himself as one of the tours elite players. Holmes is a proficient putter and solid enough ball striker but what really attracted us to him this week is his current form along with past course form. At the above price he simply looks value this week.