Cam to be Contained

Best Bets

2 Pts Peyton Manning Total Passing Yards Under 244.5 (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 Pt New England Patriots to Beat Denver Broncos by 1-6 Points (7/2 General)

2 Pts Cam Newton Total Rushing Yards Under 40.5 (5/6 Paddy Power)

The NFL regular season proved telling last weekend as all the top seeds progressed to the conference finals. In the AFC the Patriots will travel to Denver to face Peyton Manning’s Broncos. This will see another matchup between Manning and Brady who have played against each other numerous times before on important occasions. In the NFC the Arizona Cardinals will travel to North Carolina to play the Panthers who perhaps were the most dominating team of divisional weekend.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

The bookies have this one down as a Pats win, giving them a marginal edge on the handicap. The familiar matchup of Brady vs Manning will probably come to a close after this one with Manning likely playing in his last season this year. Brady was at his very best in the divisional round against Kansas. He passed with precision throughout the game and kept the ball in the Patriot’s hands well. He went for over 300 yards passing with no interceptions and a >100 passer rating. This surely must be worrying for the Broncos, but Brady will have to be at his very best against the elite Denver defensive unit. Manning was able to carry Denver past Pittsburgh on Sunday, but he looked a far cry from his best. There were countless changes in possession and Manning looked reluctant to throw the deep ball. He ended up with a passer rating of 74 which was inflated by some good work by his receivers. This was also against one of the worst pass defences in football.

On the basis of the above, we think Manning will struggle this week with the passing game. New England is a far superior defensive team to Pittsburgh and we are happy to have a bet on Manning passing under 245 yards in this game. In terms of Manning’s directive he will likely be told to play conservatively and protect the football. Expect a lot of run plays from Denver and Manning only taking risks if the game calls for it. For Denver to win this one they need to rely on their defence and keeping the game tight. They will know this and Manning is experienced enough to do what the team needs to don’t expect him to be converting many long bombs in this one.

This matchup is a repeat of an early season encounter that saw Denver win a close game in overtime. The key difference here is the injury status of the Patriots. On offence Edelman and Amendola are now available for Brady and on defence Collins and Hightower are back. Simply put, with these players available the Patriots are a different prospect. That being said, the Denver defensive unit is the best of the best and should keep this game close. Altitude and home field advantage are further contributing factors that should keep Denver in this one. All being said we can see New England taking this one by a small margin, and we have made a small play on the winning margin market.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

This is an exciting matchup for the NFC, and the game that all the neutrals wanted to see. These two didn’t face off in the regular season, but both had fantastic regular season records with only four losses between them. Carolina holds home field advantage, and have only lost once this season, in a match that didn’t really hold much importance. Arizona got here in one of the most spectacular playoff games ever. They recovered from a Rodgers hail mary that took the game to overtime. It was Larry Fitzgerald that came up big in overtime with a massive play that took them inside the five yard line and led to the eventual win.

Carolina on the other hand rolled out to a huge first half lead against Seattle. They played almost perfect football, and if they repeat that kind of performance in any game they will win. What is troubling for Carolina however is that they were shaky in the second half. They hung on eventually, but there was limited production on offence for most of the second half of the game. The Carolina coaching staff explained that this only happened because they went into ‘protect’ mode, but it will be interesting to see if this has an effect on their performance this week.

In terms of calling the winner on this one it seems too close to make a decision. We do think there is an angle in for a bet however. Seattle held Cam Newton to 3 yards rushing in the divisional round. This was little surprise as they are the best rush defence team in the league. Arizona aren’t bad in this category either. They rank 6th in the league in defending against the rush and will be under key directive to not let Cam get free running outside the pocket. Containing Newton will be a key objective and one that we think they will achieve. Newton has averaged only 39 yards per game rushing this season, so almost evens on him to rush less than 41 yards against an elite rush defence team looks a great price.