NFL Divisional Round Preview

Best Bets

1 Pt New England Patriots to win by 1-10 Points vs Kansas City Chiefs (6/4 Paddy Power)

1 Pt New England Patriots to win by 1-5 Points vs Kansas City Chiefs (4/1 Paddy Power)

2 Pts Carolina Panthers (-2.5 Handicap) to beat the Seattle Seahawks (10/11 Betway)

1 Pt Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos Highest Scoring Quarter = Quarter 4 (7/4 Stan James)

We head in to the divisional round this week after an eventful weekend of wildcard matches. The Texans didn’t turn up against the Chiefs. The Bengals hit the self-destruct button at a critical time. The Vikings were left to rue a chip shot miss and the Packers offence got rolling again.

Now the big boys enter the mix for the divisional round, and this week’s set of fixtures should provide some excellent viewing along with some betting opportunities for us. We have looked at all four fixtures and came up with our best bets for the weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

The Chiefs were dominant in the wildcard round in a shutout win against the Texans. They have stretched their win streak to 11 and are the hottest team in the NFL right now. This week they travel to New England who have been playing their worst football of the season in the last few weeks. The Patriots are 2-3 in their last five games, but this trend can be attributed to injuries that have affected them across their roster.

The Patriots go off as clear favourites for this matchup and they are helped with home field advantage courtesy of their strong regular season record. The Chiefs are almost 2/1 on the moneyline market which seems a bit long given their recent form.

The Pats are 7-1 at home this year and hold the best net point advantage in the AFC. When they have their full set of offensive options available they are almost impossible to stop. They will be buoyed by the fact that Julian Edelman is clear to play with a steel plate in his shoe this week. His return will allow Brady to go back to a more versatile playbook.

The Patriots also have the advantage of being the fresher team after a week off. The Chiefs played well against the Texans to roll out to 11 straight victories, but when analysing the strength of their most recent opponents it is clear to see that the wins haven’t come against the most elite teams. All this adds up to a Patriots victory for us, but given the standard of the Chiefs recent performances we are projecting a tight affair.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

The Packers finally got their offence rolling in wildcard weekend and Rogers looked his ruthless best at points in the game against the Redskins. His confidence is key for the Packers who have the tough test of facing up against the Cards on the road this week. Go back a couple of weeks and Arizona destroyed Green Bay in a regular season matchup. The Cardinals are rightful heavy favourites but don’t expect a blowout this week. The Cardinals have so much more to lose this weekend, and nerves will factor. Green Bay have their confidence back and won’t lie down at this point in the season.

Arizona should win this match, and if we were forced to pick on the spread we would side with the Cards. We tipped the Cardinals to go all the way to the Super Bowl this year and we stand by that prediction but we think the bookies have this one bang on this weekend and we are happy to sit this one out.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Of all the matches this week this one excites us the most. The Seahawks have had massive amounts of success in recent years and are no strangers to tough playoff matchups. Their playoff pedigree shouldn’t be ignored this weekend and is a factor we have considered. Carolina on the other hand have proven to everyone this season that they are the real deal. They secured the best record in the NFL this year and by the end of the season the doubters had been silenced.

Seattle had a resurgence later on in the season securing their playoff spot, but they were less than convincing against the Vikings last weekend surviving courtesy of a missed chip shot. The Seahawks are 5-3 on the road, whereas the Panthers are 8-0 at home. Carolina have won on average by more than 15 points this season at home. Cam Newton is a better passer at home than on the road with an average QB rating of 105 on his home field this season. Another factor we have considered is freshness, with the Panthers coming in to this game after a week off.

In our opinion the above adds up to a convincing Carolina win. They have won this matchup earlier in the regular season and we think that they look good to cover the spread this week and advance to the NFC Finals.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Pittsburgh were banged up as they survived a tense affair against the Bengals in Wildcard Weekend. Ben Roethlisberger injured his shoulder, but somehow managed to win the game for the Steelers late on. His status is uncertain this week. He will likely play, but a shoulder injury is likely to limit his production. Another issue for the Steelers this week lies with their star receiver Antonio Brown. Under concussion protocol he is likely to miss this match which will be a huge loss for the Pittsburgh offence. On the other side of the field Peyton Manning will take the field for the Broncos. Manning hasn’t been anywhere near his best this season, so both teams might struggle on the offensive end early.

In terms of picking a winner for this one we would go for Denver due to their elite defence. Facing an injured Big Ben, they might be able to entirely shut down the usually potent Pittsburgh offence. What does seem likely however is this one is likely to be a defensive battle and a low scoring affair. Rather than side with unders on the total points market we have decided to take a look at a lesser used betting market. We think it could take a while for these offences to get rolling and almost 2/1 on the fourth quarter to be the highest scoring segment looks great value.