Super Bowl 50 Preview
Best Bet
3 Pts New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals (Name the finalists market) 5/1 Ladbrokes
The 2015/16 NFL regular season comes to a close next week as the best teams gear up for post-season action and a potential run at Super Bowl 50. It’s just over a month until the best of the AFC & NFC lace it up in San Francisco for the ultimate prize, and we thought we would try and piece together the best bets we can find representing post-season value.
AFC
The AFC bye teams are likely finalised with the Patriots secure at top spot and the Broncos likely to finish second unless they suffer a collapse in week 17, which would leave a window of opportunity for the Bengals. That leaves us with four wildcard teams, which will likely be the Bengals, Texans, Chiefs & the Jets. Of these four teams we only see two teams having a realistic chance at making a run in the post-season for the Super Bowl. The Jets and Texans have proved lots wrong if they can hold on and make the post-season, but they lack the roster depth and star quality (save JJ Watt) to win the big prize. There is a still a possibility of the Steelers making the playoffs, and although they hold an insane amount of offensive weapons we think they will fall short at making the post-season this year. Even if they were to creep in, we think a rigorous post-season on road schedule would prove to be too much for the Pittsburgh unit.
That leaves us firstly with the Bengals, who have been great this season. But with late injuries to a host of players including their much improved quarterback Dalton their chances have been severely reduced. There are rumours flying around that Dalton may return for the divisional round, where they would likely face off against the Broncos. Given that they will have to play on the road at this stage and at best Dalton will be familiarising himself again with the Cincinnati offence we are happy to look away from them this year.
The second AFC team that has a chance of making a post-season run in our eyes are the Kansas City Chiefs who have been on fire recently. They have won 9 on the bounce and might be the form team in the whole of the NFL. Their road record sits at 5-3 however, and going up against the AFC powerhouses on the road at each round of the playoffs will likely be too much. Their defensive backfield has been great recently, but as many have pointed out they look like a cheaper model of the Patriots and will likely struggle against some of the more experienced playoff line-ups they will encounter.
That leaves us with two teams to consider for the AFC. The Denver Broncos have limped home and have probably done enough to secure a bye. This is a huge advantage and will likely set up a divisional matchup with the Bengals at their home field. After watching their week 16 match up against the Bengals it was apparent late on that the Broncos were able to stifle the Cincinnati offence with their incredible defence. Osweiler did enough at QB to secure the victory for the Broncos in overtime, but this won’t be enough to overcome an experienced Patriots side in the conference final, where the Broncos will be on the road. We can’t look away from the Patriots in the AFC and think they will ease to the AFC title. They are confident that Amendola and Edelman will be back for the post-season and this will give Tom Brady abundant options to carefully dismantle any willing contenders.
NFC
The NFC has thrown up some surprises this year. At the start of the season many expected this conference to be a straight up battle between the Seahawks and the Packers. What has transpired however is a dominant display from Carolina led by Cam Newton’s unbelievable play. He has led his team to an early bye with an MVP calibre season. Sat right behind the Panthers are the Cardinals who have been undoubtedly the best team in the NFL for the past month. They like the Chiefs are currently sitting on a 9 game winning streak.
The main thing that is up in the air at the minute is who will win the NFC North with the Packers and Vikings currently tied for record and set to play each other next week. This game is almost a coin flip, but if we were pushed to choose we would side with a fired up Vikings squad. Nonetheless the Packers, Vikings, Seahawks and surprise package Washington Redskins will likely matchup in the wildcard round. If the Vikes Packers matchup goes as we expect in week 17 we would see the Seahawks facing the Vikings and the Packers facing the Redskins in the wildcard round. Predictably we reckon the early season frontrunners would get the job done in these matchups with the Seahawks and the Packers progressing to the divisional round. Our decision in these matches is made due to a combination of experience and star quality at the quarterback position.
This would leave us with divisional matchups of the Panthers vs Seahawks and Cardinals vs Packers. Arizona gave the Packers a taste of what they are about in Week 16 rolling out comfortable 38-8 winners. With home field advantage going to the Cardinals we see the Cardinals rolling out comfortable winners against Green Bay. The only thing that could scupper this is Rogers playing at his top level, but there hasn’t been a hint of this of late. The other divisional matchup between in the Panthers and the Seahawks looks a coin flip type matchup. The Panthers have home field and the superior record, but the Seahawks have the know-how and an elite defensive unit. It’s hard to call who we think would progress from this one, but we think the toll of this competitive game will prove telling for the conference finals, where the fresher Cards will win the NFC Championship game.
The Cardinals pathway to the NFC Championship seems less likely than that of the Patriots in the AFC, but on balance they look the standout selection. They rank first in offence in the NFL and fifth in defence showing a well-balanced elite team. It would be tough to call a Super Bowl match between the Cardinals and Patriots but 5/1 on these two to meet in the final seems fantastic value.