Expecting Thunder
Best Bets:
5 Pts on Oklahoma City Thunder to Win NBA Championship (8/1 Ladbrokes)
5 Pts on Cleveland Cavaliers to Have Under 57.5 Regular Season Wins (10/11 Bet 365)
In two weeks’ time the NBA 15/16 season will get underway with the Bulls hosting the Cavs in an eastern powerhouse matchup. We have analysed the market over the last few months and have come up with some season long tips. We have spared you a long analysis of every team in the league and focused on our selections. The 15/16 season will undoubtedly be incredibly tight with the finalists from last year still looking strong and with some of their closest rivals strengthening their rosters in the offseason. One thing we can guarantee for NBA fans in 15/16 is that this year is going to bring a whole lot of tension and regular high calibre match ups.
Western Conference:
5 Pts on Oklahoma City Thunder to Win NBA Championship (8/1 Ladbrokes)
Once again the Western Conference is stacked with high quality teams. There shouldn’t be any issue for Golden State, Houston, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and San Antonio in making the play offs. The last spot will likely be taken up by Utah, but the bookies see it this way too and not much value can be found here.
We feel that like last year, the rigour of the competitive Western Conference will yield a Championship winning team. Whoever comes through the West this year will likely face the Cavs in the finals. With Lebron another year older and injury concerns plaguing the Cavs we feel the ‘Best of the West’ will prevail.
To us there are four legitimate title contenders in the West. Memphis & Houston haven’t improved enough from last year when they fell short. New Orleans are far too raw at this point and a Championship season is too much to ask for Anthony Davis who will be carrying the Pelicans on his back. That leaves us with Golden State, Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio and Oklahoma City.
The Los Angeles Clippers exited the playoffs last year in familiar disappointing fashion, throwing a series lead away against the Rockets. The Clippers managed to hold on to their star centre DeAndre Jordan in a farcical free agency saga with the Dallas Mavericks. What’s more they strengthened their bench with the acquisition of veteran Paul Pierce. We feel that this added strength isn’t going to be enough for the Clippers. Their star point guard Chris Paul is now past his best at 30 years old and too much pressure is going to lie on the shoulders of Blake Griffin. Griffin is turning in to a great player, but he isn’t someone who looks comfortable when he has to carry a team through a tough series. On that basis we are going to stay away from the Clippers.
The San Antonio Spurs were the clear winners of the off season acquiring the All Star Power Forward LaMarcus Aldridge from Portland. The Spurs are going to have to change a lot this year as they look to reduce minutes for the veteran bunch of Parker, Ginobli and Duncan. They have in Aldridge a ready-made replacement for Duncan, but the key question is whether they can integrate this change effectively in one season. We were heavily tempted by San Antonio, but best odds of 4/1 (Paddy Power) puts them shorter than last year’s champions. Given the changes that need to be implemented in order to integrate Aldridge we have decided to leave them alone.
Golden State were unstoppable last year, cruising to a deserved title and living by the jump shot all year long. Steph Curry took regular season MVP honours in a stand out season. The starting line-up is still very young with Curry being a veteran of this team at 27 years old! Golden State will be strong contenders this year and they start off at best odds of 21/4 (Bet 365). We don’t think they will go back to back however. Look for teams to smarten up this year against Golden State. Perimeter Defence will be a focus against Thompson and Curry. It’s tough to put total faith in a team that lives and dies by the jump shot so much, and the fact that the Warriors haven’t improved their roster in the offseason will count against them.
So that leads us to our 15/16 pick for the Championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Simply put the combination of a healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook is a devastating force. In theory, and as all pre-season games would indicate, that is what OKC will have for this season. Along with Durant and Westbrook the Thunder have players such as Ibaka and Kanter demonstrating the depth of this team. Billy Donovan will take over head coaching duties for the Thunder and this fresh outlook should give the Thunder more ammunition to get the job done. It looks like this will be Durant’s last season at the Thunder and he will be giving it his all to win the title. If the duo of Durant and Westbrook stay fit we like the Thunder to win it all. What’s more they represent fantastic value at 8/1 (Ladbrokes) to win the championship.
Eastern Conference:
5 Pts on Cleveland Cavaliers to Have Under 57.5 Regular Season Wins (10/11 Bet 365)
Let’s be honest, the Eastern Conference is weak compared to the West. Besides the Cleveland Cavaliers it’s hard to say that any of the other Eastern teams are legitimate title contenders. The Cavs go into this season as favourites (11/4 Bet 365), but aside from the Cavs the only other team that the bookies have under 30’s is the Bulls (16/1 Betfred). The Bulls are only this short because most see them having a relatively unchallenged path to the conference finals where they will likely lose to Lebron and the Cavs again.
We aren’t going to argue with the bookies here. The Cavs are 1/2 to win the conference and although this doesn’t represent value we aren’t going to argue that they won’t secure the conference again. The Hawks surprised many last year and took the East number 1 seed going in to the play offs, but we can’t see a similar shock happening this year. The Hawks have lost DeMarre Carroll to Toronto and teams this year know they need to lock down Korver on the perimeter.
Where we disagree with the bookies is in terms of the Cavs chances of winning the NBA Finals. The Cavs haven’t improved in the offseason and with the injury concerns that shroud this team we don’t see them winning the finals. The Cavs are going to come up against the best of the stacked Western Conference and like last year we think the ‘best of the west’ will prove too much for Lebron and the Cavs.
So we see the Cavs winning the Eastern conference but falling short in the Finals. On that basis we had to look for value elsewhere. The race for the playoffs looks too close to call with a number of teams fighting for the final couple of positions that will be on offer. We like Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, Toronto, and Washington to lock up playoff positions pretty comfortably, but it is hard to call the remaining two positions, especially before we see how the teams open up in the first couple of weeks.
One thing that does seem likely this year is that the Cavs will struggle early, as they did last season. Love, Irving and Shumpert are all currently out. No date has been set for any of these starters to return and it is unlikely that the Cavs will, or will need to, rush these players back. The Cavs are likely to rest these players as much as possible until they reach full health to have them ready for the post season. With Lebron fit the Cavs are good enough to make the playoffs without these guys, so we definitely see a ‘no rush’ policy in getting these guys back. This is going to impact the Cavs loss column though and they are going to struggle to reach the 53 wins that they reached last season. On that basis we are tipping the Cavs to have fewer than 57.5 regular season wins (10/11 Bet 365). This looks extremely good value given the lack of pressure on the Cavs to secure the number 1 spot in the east and their current injury situation.